我国居民旅游消费对经济增长的影响分析

Analysis on Influence of Tourism Consumption on Economic Growth in China

本文利用我国1994—2006年的时间序列数据,运用计量经济学中的协整理论对城镇、农村居民旅游消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。得出以下主要结论:城镇居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间具有协整关系;城镇居民旅游消费每增加1%,GDP增加0.79%,第三产业增加值增加0.85%;城镇居民旅游消费对第三产业的推动作用大于其对经济增长的推动作用;而农村居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间不具有协整关系,农村居民旅游消费对经济增长和第三产业的发展没有明显的推动作用。以上现象与我国农村居民旅游消费的特征是分不开的。最后,提出了提高我国居民旅游消费水平的对策。

Making use of the time series data during 1994-2006, this paper analyses the relationship between tourism consumption of residents and economic growth based on the co-integration theory. And it draws some conclusions as follows：the tourism consumption of urban residents has the co-integration relation with GDP as well as the added value of the third industry;if the tourism consumption of urban residents increases by 1% ,the GDP will increase by 0. 79% ,and the added value of the third industry will increase by 0.85% ;the impulse of the tourism consumption of urban residents to the added value of the third industry exceeds that of the economic growth to it ; however,there is no co-integration rela- tionship between the tourism consumption of rural residents and the economic growth as well as the added value of the third industry, and the tourism consumption of rural residents has no obvious effects on the economic growth as well as the added value of the third industry,which is due to the characteristics of tourism consumption of rural residents. Finally, it puts forward some countermeasures to improve the level of tourism consumption of residents in China.