汇率决定的资产组合平衡模型述评

Review on Portfolio Balance Model of Exchange Rate Determination

在汇率波动频繁剧烈和国际金融市场高度发达的背景下,汇率决定的资产组合平衡模型利用资产市场组合平衡分析法研究汇率的决定,开拓了汇率理论研究的新视野。经过经济学家的修正和扩展,该模型在研究对象、研究方法、研究结论和实证研究等方面做出了突出的贡献,并具有积极的政策指导意义。但是,该模型也存在假设不尽合理、实证检验效果不佳等缺陷,还需要逐步完善和发展。

Against the background of intense and frequent exchange rate fluctuations and highly developed international finan- cial markets, the portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination uses portfolio balance approach to analyze the determi- nation of exchange rate, bringing new insights into the theoretical research on exchange rate. After the correction and expan- sion by economists, the model has made outstanding contributions in research objects, research methods, research findings, empirical research and the like. However, there still exist such defects as imperfect assmnptions, and poor test results in em- pirical studies. Hence, the model still needs further improvement and development.