基于地理信息系统的儿童结核病疫情插值分析

An interpretation analysis of childhood tuberculosis based on GIS

目的探讨四川省茂县儿童结核病发病率的空间地理分布模式及规律，为儿童结核病的有效防控提供科学依据。方法采用地理信息系统技术和普通克立格插值分析方法对“5·12”地震重灾区四川省西北部结核病高发山区的儿童结核病相关资料进行分析处理。结果海拔和人均年收入分布与儿童结核病发病率之间有明显的相关性（R=0．671，P=0．021〈0．05和R=0．703，P=0．032〈0．05）；儿童结核病高发区分布以雅都乡、曲谷乡、维城乡、洼底乡为中心，且随着与该地区距离的加大，发病率逐渐降低。结论四川省茂县儿童结核病发病率呈明显的地域分布规律。

Objective To analyse spatial geographical distribution patterns and laws of prevalence rate of childhood tuberculosis （TB） in Maoxian county, Sichuan province, so as to provide a scientific basis for childhood TB prevention and control. Methods Geographic information system （GIS） technology and ordinary Kriging interpretation analysis method were used to analyse data of childhood TB in the highly prevalent mountain areas of childhood where was in＂5 · 12＂ serious earthquake disaster region--northwest Sichuan. Results There was a significant relationship between altitude, yearly income per capita and childhood TB morbidity rate （R=0. 671, P =0. 021 〈0.05 ; R =0. 703, P =0. 032 〈0.05 respectively）. The highly prevalent areas of childhood TB centralized in townships Yadu, Qugn, Weicheng and Wadi, and with increase in distance from the areas, the morbidity rate of childhood TB was decreased gradually. Conclusion The prevatence rate of childhood TB in Maoxian county shows an obvious geographical distribution pattern.