海底管道系统管跨涡激振动疲劳可靠度综合评估方法

Integrated reliability assessment on VIV-induced fatigue failure for submarine pipeline system due to span

考虑海底管道悬空的动态变化情况,并从系统的角度对管跨疲劳风险评估方法进行了研究。选取主要影响因素,运用模糊数学方法确定管跨发生概率,进而提出了一种海底管道系统管跨涡激振动疲劳可靠度的评估方法。该方法综合考虑了各管段管跨发生概率、管跨发生在同一地点的概率、管道最大疲劳损伤发生在同一部位的概率、管跨长度以及定长管跨涡激振动疲劳失效概率等因素。与传统评估方法相比,本文方法评估结果更接近工程实际。

Considering the dynamic characteristics of submarine pipeline span occurring, span fatigue risk assessment is studied from system aspect. Spanning probability is determined by selecting main factors and employing fuzzy mathematics, and then a method of assessing fatigue reliability of submarine pipeline system due to span VIV （Vortex-Induced Vibration） is developed. The method takes the spanning probability, the spanning probability in the same place, span length and fixedlength span fatigue failure probability into account comprehensively. Compared with conventional method,the method is closer to engineering practice.