摘要
本文通过对剔除季节因素和长期因素的纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格数据进行谱分解,发现该黄金现货价格存在90个月和150个月两个周期。并以此为依据对黄金现货价格趋势进行了预测,为优化我国外汇储备配置,防范汇率波动风险提供政策建议。
In this article, through Spectral Analysis on the data of New York Commodity Exchange Gold Spot Price, in which seasonal factor and trend factor were eliminated firstly, we have found two periods of 90 months and 150 months existing in the series. Conclusion is drawn and suggestion is made to optimize foreign exchange reserve to hedge the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2009年第3期30-31,35,共3页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
关键词
纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格
周期
季节分解
单位根
谱分解
New York Commodity Exchange Gold Spot Price
Periods
Seasonal Decomposition
Unit Root
Spectral Analysis
