阿克苏河流域春季径流变化及气候成因分析

Analyses on Springtime Runoff Variance of Aksu River and Its Climate Causes

采用数理统计方法,分析了35年来阿克苏河流域春季径流的变化及其与冬、春季气温、降水等气候因子的响应关系。研究表明,流域内春季径流在增加,冬、春季均有增暖变湿的趋势,影响阿克苏河春季径流的主导气候因子是前冬降雪和春季温度,春季径流对前冬降雪、春季温度具有正相关关系。春季流域以融雪径流为主,4月中下旬开始出现融雪径流,5月中下旬融雪作用明显。近年来阿克苏河损耗径流增加,主要由于其两支流汇流前流域农业灌溉用水增多所致。同时分析了35年来春季阿克苏河径流典型丰、枯水年当年春季及前冬的500 hPa位势高度环流场的距平特征。

The variance of Aksu River＇s springtime runoff and its response to climatic factors, including winter-spring temperature and precipitation and so forth during the last 35 years, were analyzed by utilizing mathematical statistics, which indicate that the springtime runoff in Aksu River have been increasing, and the warming and wetting tendency exist in both the winter and spring. The dominant climate factor affecting Aksu River runoff is early-winter snow and spring time temperature, while the spring time runoff is positively correlated with the early-winter snow and springtime temperature. The river in spring mainly consists of thaw runoff, which begins during the second half of April. In the recent years, the runoff loss of Aksu River increased, which is mainly due to the increase of agricultural irrigation. Meanwhile, the features of the 500 hPa geopotential height circulation field anomaly during typical high and low flow years of Aksu River in the spring of the past 35 years.