多国GDP溢出下我国应对国际金融危机的对策研究

Analysis on China's Policies against International Financial Crisis with GDP-spillovers in Multilateral Model

本研究发展了两国Mundell-Fleming模型,建立了中国、美国、日本、欧盟的多国(地区)GDP溢出模型,对当前国际金融危机下我国的金融政策进行了模拟分析。研究结果发现,在下一阶段,稳定人民币汇率是促进我国经济增长的较有效途径;降低利率在一定程度上能拉动内需刺激消费,但是对于GDP增长作用甚微;若要加大货币发行量则必须将增幅控制在3.3%,否则将使我国GDP增长率有所降低;我国增加政府投资不仅可使GDP增幅提高约3个百分点,而且有助于其他国家经济增长;美联储大购国债将对我国经济产生负面影响,我国应继续深化4万亿投资计划,加大政府投资。

In order to analyze the financial policies of China dealing with the global financial crisis, a GDP-spillovers model in multilateral is established in this paper based on the bilateral Mundell-Fleming model. China, USA, Japan and EU are considered in the GDP-spillovers model. Analyses show the following results： 1. Stabilizing exchange rate of China＇s currency could promote the national economic growth. 2. Though interest cutting rates can stimulate the domestic consumption in a certain extent, hut the influence on GDP growth is tiny. 3. The expanse of the monetary circulation should he controlled within 3.3 %, otherwise the GDP growth would be negatively influenced. 4. The increase in governmental consumption not only can boost China＇ s GDP growth in about 3 %, but also is benefit for economic growth in other countries. 5. China＇s economy will be negatively influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s purchase of public debt. Against the influence, China should deepen the governmental investment to boost the domestic production and consumption.