生态脆弱性及其研究进展

Advances in research on ecological vulnerability

生态脆弱性已成为当前全球变化与可持续发展研究中的热点问题。有关生态脆弱性的研究,正逐渐从重点考察某单一生态要素发展到关注区域人地系统的整体性响应。当前生态脆弱性研究的内容主要包括系统变化分析、系统自身的敏感性与外部扰动的潜在影响,人地系统的适应性等。主要的研究方法有情景分析法、生态模拟法和指标评价法。目前生态脆弱性研究中存在的问题主要是情景分析与模拟的不确定性、适应性能力与社会经济发展的关系不明晰、自然因素与社会经济因素脆弱性研究相对不足等。生态脆弱性未来研究的重点是推进脆弱性研究多学科、跨尺度的融合,加强脆弱性中自然与人文因素的厘定和耦合研究,并开展基于历史变化史实的生态脆弱性实证分析。而作为脆弱性研究归宿,适应性研究不仅需要探讨能力建设和策略优化,还应深入研究适应性能力阈值与社会经济发展的关系以及国家、区域和群体之间适应性能力的总体协调与管理。最后,需要加强人地系统对极端自然灾害事件的脆弱性的研究。

Ecological vulnerability has been highlighted in the studies of global change and sustainability in recent years, evolving from the mono-factorial assessment of ecological impacts to the integrated evaluation of the responses of regional human-environmental systems. The recent research focuses in the field consist of ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem sensitivity to and potential impacts of disturbances, and assessment of regional adaptation and stability. The methodologies involved include scenario simulation, ecological modeling, and capacity assessment through deliberately-designed appraisal index system. However, researchers have been challenged with uncertainties resulted from scenario simulation and ecological modeling, intangible relationships between adaptive capacity and social-economic development, and the lack of simultaneous efforts from environmental, ecological and social-economic aspects. Hence the further advances of the field should emphasize the muhidisciplinary assessment of vulnerability by coupling and uncoupling ecological factors with social- economic driving forces, and strengthening empirical evidence in retrospect to historical information. The research of adaptability, the ultimate destination of vulnerability research, should focus on capacity-building and strategy optimization, the understanding of the relationship between the threshold of adaptation capacity and social-economic development, and the coordination of adaptability among competitive nations, regions and local stakeholder groups. Furthermore, an urgent need is to advance the research into the vulnerability of humankind＇s confronting emergent natural disasters.