江苏省耕地资源与经济发展计量与协调性分析

Analysis of Econometrics and Coordination between Cultivated Land Resource and Economic Development in Jiangsu Province

为促进耕地资源可持续利用与社会经济可持续发展,本文通过运用协整分析与Granger因果关系检验法,以及借鉴经济与环境协调度模型,对1978-2006年江苏省耕地数量与经济发展进行计量分析及协调性分析。结果表明,耕地数量与经济发展都是非平稳的时间序列,两者之间存在协整关系,且经济发展是耕地数量变化的单向Granger原因;耕地资源与经济发展的协调度较低,整体上呈调和型,但在时序上也表现出一定的层次性和阶段性。调和型状态下,耕地资源虽然能够保持在承载力阈值内,但只是短期内可以接受。研究结论揭示了耕地消耗将带来社会经济发展水平提高的良好愿望只是一种错觉,实际情况与此相悖。因此,有必要把严控耕地非农化、促进土地集约利用水平和提升经济发展质量作为解决耕地保护难题可供选择的途径,从而减少经济发展水平提高对耕地资源消耗的盲目依赖,促进耕地资源与经济发展的协调。

In order to promote sustainable utilization of cultivated land resource and sustainable development of social economy, the paper makes econometric and coordination analysis of cultivate land resource and economic development in the period from 1978 to 2006 in Jiangsu province. The research employs co-integration analysis and Granger causality test, and uses for reference of the coordination degree model between economy and environment. The result shows that, the variables of cultivated land quantity and economic development are non- stationary time series. A co-integration relation has been found between economic development and cultivated land quantity, and economic development is a unilateral Granger cause of cultivated land quantity. The coordination between cultivated land resource and economic development is lower, and the whole shows concessive, but the sequence in time shows in levels and stages. The concessive state, cultivated land resource can maintain the capacity threshold, but only be acceptable in a short period. Consequently, the above conclusions imply that it is somehow an illusion that the consumption of cultivated land resource can help to develop social economy. The reality, however, is opposite. In order to protect cultivated land resource, some possible policy strategies are suggested, which include controlling cultivated land conversion, improving the level of land resource intensive utilization and the quality of economic development. All of our efforts are to clarify the complex relations between economy and cultivated land resource. Authors put forward some suggestions to protect land resource, develop economy and improve coordination of cultivated land resource and economic development.