边际土地利用与经济增长关系计量研究

Metrical Relationship Between the Marginal Land Use and Economic Growth

随着经济的飞速发展,城市化、工业化的迅速推进,各行各业对土地的需求急剧膨胀,建设用地的需求不断增加,土地利用与经济增长之间的关系日益密切,对其关系分析判断及其规律的把握成为制定和实施土地资源保护与控制、开发与利用的重要依据。本文首先分析了我国城镇建设及工矿用地与经济增长的基本态势,得出我国每增加1单位二三产业产值、建设用地供给呈现不断减少的基本判断。然后运用经济学中的边际理论,构建了城镇建设及工矿用地与二三产业产值关系的计量模型,并通过中国1989-2006年18年的数据进行验证,得出两点结论:其一,我国城镇建设及工矿用地量与二三产业产值有着极大的相关性,二者相互影响;其二,我国边际城镇建设及工矿用地量(MLU)不断减少,其边际使用量的变化率(CMLU)不断趋向于0,我国城镇建设及工矿用地最佳使用量将在2047.24年达到。

Along with the rapid development of economy and urbanization and industrialization, the urban construction industrial land is increasing. The relationship between land use and economic growth is getting closer increasingly. The judgment for the relationship and its law is the important reference for making land protection policies and land use. This paper firstly analyzes the status of urban construction industrial land use and economic growth in China. And the paper draws the conclusion that the need of construction land for increasing a unit of secondary and tertiary industries is declining. Then we use the marginal theory to build some models to express the relation of the construction land and economic growth. Finally, we use 1989 - 2006 data to analyze and validate these models, and draw two conclusions： firstly, the relation between the construction industrial land use and economic growth is great; secondly, this paper shows that the marginal construction industrial land use is decreasing, the change rate of marginal land use is reaching to zero, and the year of optimal land use is 2047.24.