滇西实验场水汞同步性异常与中强地震的关系

Relationship Between Synchronous Anomalies of Hg and Medium-strong Earthquakes in Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area

研究了1992年以来滇西地震预报实验场(24°40′～27°20′N,99°～101°30′E)水汞同步性异常与中强地震的关系。研究结果表明:滇西地震预报实验场水汞同步性异常出现后,滇西实验场区发生M≥5.0地震或滇西实验场邻区(24°～28°N,97°～103°E)发生M≥6.5强震的概率为75%,平均应震间隔时间为2.7个月,对应效果较好;而且滇西实验场区M≥5.0地震发生前和滇西实验场邻区M≥6.5强震发生前,滇西实验场水汞同步性异常有很好的反映,概率为83%。

In this paper, the relationship between synchronous anomalies of mercury from four hot springs and medium-strong earthquakes in Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area （WYEPSA） and its adjacent region （24°- 28°N, 97°- 103°E）has been studied. The results show that： Usually, there would be an earthquake of M≥5.0 occurred in WYEPSA or an earthquake of M ≥6.5 occurred in its adjacent region, after a synchronous anomaly of mercury from four hot springs, the corresponding rate could be 75%, the average interval is 2.7 months. And the probability of appearance of synchronous anomalies of mercury before the medium or strong earthquakes in this area is 83%.