人力资本投资价值的贝叶斯动态模型

A Bayesian Dynamic Model of Human Capital Investment's Value

在澄清人力资本概念的基础上,根据时间和价值两个维度对人力资本进行分类,基于人力资本投资价值的不确定性,构建了贝叶斯动态模型,在模型中引入时间和后续行动的影响因素,提出用贝叶斯学习法则不断修正投资者的先验概率,以更科学合理的后验概率来评价人力资本,同时给出了后验概率矩阵,举出具体的例子进行分析验证并对后续研究进行展望。

This thesis classify the human capital by two dimensions-- time and the value , which based on the previous reseacher＇ s study of the human capital. For the uncertainty of the human capital investment value, this paper constructs a Bayesian dynamic model. The model adds two parameters to it , including time and later action of the group members. Because this model adopts the Bayesian learning rule to modify the Prior Probability , and uses the Posterior Probability to evaluate the human capital, it becomes more sensible and scientific. At the same time , we put forward a posterior Probability Matrix , and use an example to inspect and analyse. In the end, the later study of this thesis is prospects.