连续下坡道路事故率与纵面参数关系研究

Research on Relation of Traffic Accident Rate and Longitudinal Parameters in Continuous Downgrade Road

为研究连续下坡道路的纵坡坡度、坡长与事故率的关系,采集了6条连续下坡路段的事故数据和纵面线形参数,选取事故地点坡度、事故地点向上坡方向长度为N（N=1,2,3,4,5 km）的平均坡度为纵面参数,绘制散点图观察不同纵面参数对事故率分布的影响,并对事故率与各纵面参数进行指数回归和相关性分析。结果表明：事故率与平均坡度呈指数上升关系,与不同纵面参数之间的相关性差异是显著的;连续下坡道路某点的事故率取决于该点向上坡方向2-3 km路段的平均坡度。

In order to study the relations of section longitudinal gradient, ramp length on traffic accident rate in continuous downgrade road, traffic accident data and longitudinal parameters were collected from six continuous downgrade road sections. By taking parameters, such as the gradients in accident sites, the average gradients in upward length of N （N is 1,2,3,4,5 km） from accident sites as longitudinal parameters, scatter diagrams were drawn to explore the effects of longitudinal parameters on traffic accident distributions. The exponential regression and relativity analysis between accident rate and longitudinal parameters were carried out as well. The results show that accident rate increases with average gradient as exponential relation; the relativity differences between accident rate and different longitudinal parameters are significant; the accident rate of certain position in continuous downgrade road lies on the average gradient in upward 2 km to 3 km ramps from the accident site.