基于YUE-HASM方法的气温与降水时空变化趋势

Changing trends of temperature and precipitation based on YUE-HASM method

气温和降水作为最主要的气候要素,其时空变化趋势将直接影响着各种生态系统的结构、服务功能及空间分布变化。经验证,YUE-HASM方法较普通Kriging方法模拟精度高。根据江西省及其邻域范围内1961-2000年的100个气象观测站点每天的气温和降水的基础观测数据、DEM数据,运用YUE-HASM方法分别对江西省20世纪60、70、80和90年代平均气温和平均降水的时空变化趋势进行数字模拟分析。研究结果表明：在1961-2000年的40年间,江西省平均气温和平均降水在时空分布上存在显著变化,60年代为相对暖干时段、70和80年代为相对冷湿时段,而90年代则为暖湿时段。

Temperature and precipitation are the major climatic factors. Their changing trends have direct impact on the structure, service function and distribution of various ecosystems. To obtain the high accuracy surface information of temperature and precipitation, this paper introduces the YUE-HASM on the basis of the fundamental theorem of surfaces and multigrid method, which would be developed into a general platform that would have much stronger capacity of spatial modeling and make better use of the existing data. YUE-HASM has quickened computational speed and greatly increased simulation accuracy, compared to the commonly used methods （e. g. Kriging used in this paper）. The number test shows that it is much more accurate than common methods, so in this paper, the YUE-HASM method is used to simulate the changing trend of annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation in Jiangxi Province during the period from the 1960s to 1990s. The results show that： 1） the mean temperature and the mean precipitation only respectively increased by 0.02℃ during 1961-2000, but during the 40 years, the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation in Jiangxi Province has presented a significant change; 2） it is a relatively warm and dry period in the 1960s;3） it is a relatively cold and humid period from the 1970s to 1980s; and 4） it is a warm and humid period in the 1990s. From the 1960s to 1970s, the mean temperature decreased by 0.27℃ and the mean precipitation increased by 133.11mm. From the 1970s to 1980s, the mean temperature decreased by 0.04℃ and the mean precipitation only increased by 5.02ram. From the 1980s to 1990s, the mean temperature increased by 0.39℃ and the mean precipitation increased by 170.57mm. From the above analysis and discussion, it can be concluded that YUE-HASM would be an essential part of ecological informatics that studies the fundamental issues arising from the creations, storage, processing, analyzing, and modeling of the ecological information.