长江三角洲人口迁移空间格局、模式及启示

Spatial Structure, Mode and the Meaning of Population Migration in the Yangtze River Delta

本文运用修正后的重力模型和城市之间最短通行时间的O-D矩阵,模拟长江三角洲人口迁移节点联系状态,判断吸引中心的从属结构,划分人口迁移引力体系的等级结构。结果表明:至2005年,长三角共形成上海、南京、杭州、宁波、温州5个一级人口吸引中心,无锡、徐州2个二级吸引中心,连云港、淮安、扬州等9个三级吸引中心;这些吸引中心共同构成5个Ⅰ级引力体系,7个Ⅱ级引力体系和14个Ⅲ级引力体系。在此基础上,归纳出人口迁移空间结构演变的一般模式:即"单核集聚"—"多核结构"—"单中心体系"—"多中心网络"。通过吸引中心等时圈分析,认为区域快速交通体系布局对人口流动空间格局的形成起着重要的引导和支撑作用。最后从城市轨道交通、地方行政壁垒和中心城市发展角度对长江三角洲不同层次的规划提出了相应的建议。

By employing revised gravity model and O-D matrix of the shortest passing time among cities, this paper simulates communication situation of migration nodes, estimates affiliations of attractive centers, and then constructs the hierarchies of migration gravity system. The results show that, in 2005, there are five 1st level migration attractive centers, including Shanghai, Nanjing,Hangzhou, Ningbo and Wenzhou, two 2nd level attractive centers, which are Wuxi and Xuzhou, and nine 3rd level attractive centers, such as Lianyungang and Yangzhou. Consequently, the migration gravity system hierarchies are constructed based on the former attractive centers, which consist of five 1st level systems, seven 2nd level systems and 14 3rd level systems. Besides, the general mode of evolution of migration spatial structure is identified, which includes the following four processes ： ＂single-core agglomeration＂, ＂muhi-core structure＂, ＂mono-center system＂ and ＂multi-center network＂. Furthermore, by the analysis of communicating scope, this paper points out that the layout of regional fast transportation system plays an important role in guiding and supporting migration spatial patterns. Finally, from the perspective of urban rail, local administrative barriers and the development of central cities, the corresponding suggestions are put forward for the different scales of planning in the Yangtze River Delta.