美国新政权与六方会谈前景探析

Obama Administration and the Prospect of Six-Party Talks

美国大选,执政八年的共和党政府结束了其历史使命,民主党奥巴马新政府建立。根据其上台前后的言行来看,美国奥巴马新政权的基本政策主要在于重振经济、结束伊战以及坚持反恐。在外交政策上,美国新政权将改变其前任布什政府初期的单边主义武力政策,更多地采取多边或双边的协调与合作政策。在朝鲜核问题以及六方会谈机制方面,虽然美国和朝鲜同为当事国,以及中国在其中也发挥了非常重要的作用,但是美国仍然握有相当的主动权。美国新政权的基本政策同样会延续布什政府后期利用六方会谈框架与朝鲜接触和谈判的政策,甚至会采取一些更积极的政策,因为奥巴马政权要解决其面临的内外难题,需要其盟国的协助,也需要中国等国家的协助,对朝鲜这样的国家也希望能够在国际压力下促使其和平地放弃核开发。当然,半岛无核化及防止核扩散仍然是美国的根本利益,要求朝鲜放弃核开发的目标不会有丝毫的改变,甚至从原则上来说美国新政权仍然没有承诺放弃使用武力。此外,美国新政权或者还仍然存在同中国和朝鲜之间在意识形态上的对立,但是,除非发生预料不到的突发事件,美国在朝核问题上使用武力的可能性极小,在意识形态上的某些不同也不会影响奥巴马政权务实灵活的现实主义政策。总之,美国新政权的基本政策有利于朝核问题的缓和,同样也有利于六方会谈持续发挥作用。虽然美国新政权有可能同朝鲜之间有更多的双边直接接触和谈判,但是不可能脱离六方会谈的框架,即或者两国的双边谈判在六方会谈框架范围内加以实现,或者彼此都需要六方会谈框架作为自己外交回旋的余地。作为美国新政权,虽然为了能够使朝核问题有所突破而有可能更加重视双边谈判,但考虑到同中俄的战略性关系以及同其盟国日韩的伙伴关系,也不可能弃六方会谈框架而不顾。

The U.S. presidential election announced the step down of the Republican Administration and the step up of the Democratic Administra- tion leading by Barack Obema. The elementary policies of Obama Administration mainly focus on economy, Iraq War and anti - terrorism. With roference to its foreign pollcy, the new Administration will change the unilateralism of Bush Administration to multilateral and bilateral cooperation. As for the Korean Peninsular nuclear issue and Six -party talks, U.S. still has more initiative compared with North Korea and China. Obama will succeed Bushfs policy on this issue to talk inside the existing fiaumework. To some extents he will be even more active to cooperate with America＇s alliance and also China so as to deal with international and domestic problems. He also hopes that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons poacofully under the pressure of international society. There is no doubt that the denuclearization of Korean Peninsnlar and non - proliferation of nuclear weapon are still the essential interests of America so that in principle Obama hasnt promised to abandon the use of rome. Additionally, there still exists ideological opposition between America and North Korea as well as China. However, the difference in ideology wont affect the flexibility and pragmatism of Obama Administration＇s foreign policy. Only when there happenod some emergent issue, U.S. is very unlikely to use the force. In a word, the policy of U. S. will help to ease the tension on the nuelear issue and exercise the influence of Six - party talks. It＇s possible that U. S. will talk with North Korea directly and bilaterally. Nevertheless, they wont give up the mechanism of Six-party talks and they will embed the bilateral talk into the Six - party talks or using this framework as diplomatic home - front. In order to pursue a breakthrough on the nuclear issue w U.S. will put more emphasis on bilateral talk with North Korea. However, with concerns of the U. S. - Sino and U. S. - Russia strategic relationships considering U.S. - Japan and U.S. - South Kraea relationship, Obams Administration will make use of the Six -party talks in the long nm.