河南省经济增长中高速公路产业投资作用的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Function of Investment in Expressway Industry in Henan Economic Growth

笔者运用协整理论验证了高速公路产业在河南省经济增长中的作用,结果表明:河南省高速公路产业投资与经济增长具有长期稳定关系,但由于河南省高速公路建设起步较晚,其对经济增长促进作用尚不显著,而经济增长却是带动高速公路产业投资的格兰杰成因。此外,河南省经济增长自身及高速公路投资的波动造成了河南省经济增长对长期均衡路径的短期偏离。

Cointegration theory is applied in this paper to verify the function of expressway industry in Henan economic growth. The result shows that there is a long term stable relationship between investment in expressway industry and economic growth in Henan province. However, because the construction of expressway started rather late in Henan, its positive impact on Henan economic growth is inconspicuous whereas economic growth is the Granger cause to promote the investment in highway industry. In addition, Henan economic growth itself and the fluctuation of the investment in expressway industry are responsible for Henan economic growth＇ s short-term deviation from long-term stable path.