人民币内外价值波动:一个长期趋势的分析

Fluctuations of the Internal and External value of RMB:a Long-term Trend Analysis

人民币内外价值的变动率在长期具有趋同性;人民币内在价值、外在价值和时间价值的变动存在协整关系;在时间价值既定的条件下,人民币内外价值具有长期背离趋势。这些结论表明人民币价值背离是我国经济的一种常态现象,是对人民币实际汇率上升的具体反映。

The change rate of the internal and external value of RMB has the convergence characteristic in the long run; There exists the co-integration relationship in the change in the internal value, external value and time value of RMB; RMB＇ s internal value and external value have the trend of long-term deviation under the condition of unchanging time value. These conclusions show that the deviation of RMB＇ s internal value from its external value is a kind of regular state in our economy, which reflects the rise in RMB＇ s real exchange rate.