事故调查分析方法与技术述评

Review on Accident Investigation and Analysis Methods

根据事故的原因结果模型、过程模型、能量模型、逻辑树模型、SHE管理模型将事故调查分析技术方法归纳为5大类,介绍了广泛使用的事故调查分析技术方法的特点,并按一定的标准进行分析和比较。分析表明:每种方法都有其不同的应用领域和优缺点,应针对不同领域问题选用合适的分析方法,多种调查技术组合分析适用于复杂事故的调查;考虑事件次序及其影响因素的调查方法,便于提出预防事故再次发生和减少风险的建议,图表阐述有利于鉴别信息缺陷,并使调查组之间的沟通有力;笔者在调查过程中注重于非正常分析方法得出的结果,宜采用更为先进的事故分析技术方法以保证事故调查的客观性。

The main commonly recognized methods were generalized into five major categories based on the accident models, including Causal-sequence Model, Process Model, Energy Model, Logical Tree Model as well as SHE-management Model. At the same time, a brief description of some commonly used methods was provided, as well as a comparative analysis on them according to important characteristics. It can be concluded as follow ： each of these methods has different areas of application and different qualities and deficiencies, so a generally adopted method should be suitable to the specific modes and characteristic features of a certain accident, and a combination of methods ought to be used in a comprehensive investigation of a complex accident ; Methods considering the event sequences and accident factors can help reduce risk and prevent future accidents. Graphical illustrations can help not only identify information gaps but also facilitate communication among investigators; Investigators focusing on the government and the regulators in their accident investigation to a great extend need to base their analysis on experience and practical judgment, more than on results from formal analytical methods, there may be need for advanced analytic techniques to support the objectivity tasks of accident investigation.