陕西省汉台区1978年至2006年耕地数量变化及驱动力分析

Analysis of the Changes of Cultivated Land and Its Factors on Hantai District of Shanxi Province from 1978 to 2006

汉台区是陕西省农业产业结构调整典型示范区,近年来,由于农业产业结构调整、退耕还林还草和建设占用耕地,汉台区耕地数量大量减少,耕地供需矛盾突出。本文利用1978年以来汉台区耕地长序列统计资料和近9年的土地详查与变更数据,研究汉台区土地利用现状及其结构变化、分析汉台区耕地数量变化的基本过程及空间差异、探讨耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。研究结果表明:①1978年～2006年全区耕地共减少5600hm2,平均每年减少200hm2,人均耕地减少0.027hm2,耕地递减率曲线与人均耕地递减率曲线走势基本一致;②建设占用耕地、退耕还林还草和农业结构调整等直接影响因子在4种类型区影响耕地变化差异明显;总体上,农业产业结构调整是全区耕地减少的主导因素,经济发展较快的城镇,建设占用耕地较多;③耕地面积与社会经济发展各因素间的相关系数约低于累计耕地面积与各因素之间的相关系数,说明全区耕地减少与社会经济发展存在时间上的错位性,即经济和社会发展滞后于对耕地资源的占用。

Han Tai is a typical demonstration zone of adjustment of agricultural structure in Shaanxi Province. Due to the agricultural structure adjustment, ＂Grain-for-Green Project＂, the occupation of cultivated land, Han Tai has witnessed drastic reduction in the area of arable land and the contradiction between cultivated land supply and demand aggravated. We have used long sequence statistics and data of detailed land investigation and change for nearly nine years to study the status and structural changes of land use, analyze the basic process and spatial differences of cultivated land, and discuss the main driving force for area change of arable land. The results show that： 1） In 1978-2006, the area of arable land has reduced by 5 600hm2, with an average reduction speed of 200hm^2 per year and 0.027hm^2 per capita. The declining rate of arable land as a whole share the same trend with that of per capita rate; 2） the occupation of cultivated land for building, withdrawal of farmland for forests and grasslands, agricultural structure adjustment and other factors directly affect four types of cultivated land area of obvious differences in changes. Generally, agricultural structure adjustment is the dominant factor leading to the reduction of arable land. Cities and towns with faster economic development speed often consume more farmland for construction; 3） correlation coefficient of arable land area and various factors concerning socio-economic development is less than that of aumulative arable land area and those factors. Such fact indicates that farmland reduction and socio-economic development of Han Tai are temporally mismatched. In other words, economic and social development lags behind the occupation degree of farmland resources.