供应链的“牛鞭效应”与不确定性分析及其对策探讨

To Discuss on Analysing of Bullwhip Effects and Uncertainty for the Supply Chain and Its Countermeasures

供应链的"牛鞭效应"与不确定性,使得要准确预测需求和制定生产供应计划变得困难。为保持供应链运作的稳定性和连续性,在既定的供应链管理目标下,维持合理经济的库存水平是研究的方向。针对供应链运作环境下所产生的"牛鞭效应"和不确定性现象进行分析,在分析供应链的"牛鞭效应"和不确定性产生的原因的基础上,提出了减少或弱化"牛鞭效应"和不确定性的若干应对策略。

It＇s difficult to make an exact forecast and product plan because of the Bullwhip effect and supply chain uncertainty. So keep reasonable inventory is the direct of our study.This paper analyses factors to produce the Bullwhip Effect and uncertainty of supply chain.Then give some coutermeasures to relieve or weaken the Bullwhip Effect and supply chian uncertainty.