摘要
Beijing's strong renminbi policy will likely give China's commodity firms enormous buying powers in 2009. Cheap commodities and high leverage at overseas commodity firms provide further support to China's outward FDI. We forecast USD 150-180bn of resource-focused Chinese FDI overseas in 2009,vs.USD 80-100bn of FDI into China.
This, we believe, will be the year of Beijing＇s strong renminbi policy. Despite concerns about exports, we believe Beijing will keep the CNY pegged against a strong dollar. Combined with cheaper commodity prices and the pressing need of many overseas commodity firms to deleverage, this will create the perfect opportunity for China＇s firms to significantly ramp up their outward foreign direct investment （FDI）. China＇s outward FDI flows are focussed on three sectors： energy, raw materials, and agricultural land. The beginning of 2009 has seen a flurry of deals in which Chinese investors have secured ownership or long-term supply contracts to such things.
