摘要
以山东为例，利用单位根检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验等现代计量经济学方法，基于1978～2007年的时间序列数据，对入境旅游发展与区域经济增长之间的关系进行了分析。实证结果表明：山东入境旅游与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，并构建了一个协整模型，模型表明入境旅游增长1％，能拉动国内生产总值增长0．45％，通过误差修正模型反映了变量之间的短期波动与长期均衡关系。Granger因果检验得出山东入境旅游发展对山东经济增长具有促进作用，并依据研究结论提出相关建议。
In this paper, Shandong, for example, by economics means of the unit root test, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test, based on the years of 1978 -2007 data, analyzed the relationship between the inbound tourism and regional economic growth. The results show that： there is a long-term stability co-integration relation between inbound tourism and economic growth. Through the co-integration model, the result shows that with 1% increase of inbound tourism, GDP will increase 0. 45%. The ECM explains the short-term undulation and long-term equilibrium among the variables. Shandong inbound tourism in Shandong has a role in promoting economic growth, and submit detailed opinions based on the research conclusion.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2009年第2期60-63,共4页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
