国际价格竞争与人民币汇率传递的实证研究

An Empirical Study on International Price Competition and Exchange Rate Pass-through

本文在考虑国际价格竞争的基础上构建了研究人民币汇率传递效应的基本框架,并将其应用于中国对美国出口价格汇率传递程度的经验检验。本文通过协整技术和向量误差修正模型的实证研究,发现中国对美国出口价格受到了国际价格竞争的重要影响,所以人民币汇率传递程度并不高。因此,不完全汇率传递降低了支出转移效应,从而大大削弱了通过人民币升值来改善中美两国贸易不平衡的有效性。

This paper builds up a framework to study the exchange rate pass - through in the presence of intern ational price competition in the US market and analyzes RMBg nominal exchange rate pass - through into China export price to US. By using cointegration techniques and VEC model, the authors find a high degree of international price competition in the US market which leads to a low degree of RMB＇s nominal exchange rate pass - through. These results, in turn, suggest a low degree of international expenditure - switching effects, so incomplete exchange rate pass - through destroys the effectiveness of mitigating the trade imbalance between US and China by RMB＇s appreciation.