1951～2006年新疆地区气候变化特征及其与水资源的关系

Climate change and its relationship with water resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1951 to 2006

利用北疆5个气象站、南疆7个气象站1951—2006年月平均气温及月降水总量资料，用高桥浩一郎公式计算了新疆区域月平均蒸发量及可利用降水量，并在此基础上分析了1951～2006年新疆地区气候变化及水资源变化趋势，以及气候变化对水资源的影响．结果表明：（a）新疆地区气温从20世纪50年代以来基本上都是呈上升趋势，90年代以来的气温明显高于平均值，为正距平；60年代中期至80年代末期，降水比平均值偏少，90年代以后，降水持续增加；（b）新疆地区可利用降水量20世纪50年代中期至80年代初期呈持续下降趋势，80年代初期至今呈增加趋势，90年代初期至今为高值期；（c）新疆地区降水与可利用降水量之间存在明显正相关．在此基础上建立了新疆地区降水变化对可利用降水量影响的统计评估模型．

Based on the nan monthly temperature and precipitation of five meteorological stations in the north and seven nreteomlogical stations in the south of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1951 to 2006, the mean monthly evaporation and the utilizable precipitation （the precipitation minus the evaporation） of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were computed using Takahashi ＇ s equation. The climate change and the trend of water resources change as well as the impact of climate change on the water resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 1951 to 2006 were analyzed. The results show the following： （1） The temperature in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has been increasing since the early 1950s, and it has been higher than the mean value since the 1990s, which is a positive anomaly. The precipitation was lower than the mean value from the middle of 1960s to the late 1980s, and it has been continuously increasing from the early 1990s. （2） The utilizable precipitation decreased from the middle of the 1950s to the early 1980s and has been increasing since the early 1980s, and the period with largest value of precipitation has been occurring since the 1990s. （3） There has been a positive correlation between the precipitation and the utilizable precipitation. Finally, a statistical assessment model for the impact of the precipitation on the utilizable precipitation is established.