蒙特卡罗法在投标报价中的应用

Research on the Application of Monte Carlo Method in Bidding

投标报价的科学决策事关企业能否中标以及中标后项目能否顺利实施。针对经评审的最低价法具有随机性强的特点,采用蒙特卡罗法来模拟变量因子的随机性,对招标最高控制价的下降幅度进行了预测,提出一种经评审的最低价法下的投标报价决策模型。该模型能较好地模拟变量因子的变动范围,为投标报价提供决策依据。这在蒙特卡罗法的应用上是一种新的尝试。

The scientific decision - making of bidding is directly related to the project＇s success or failure. The bidding model of lowest bidding price was proposed. In view of the characteristics of the random, Monte Carlo method was used in simulating the random variable factors and forecasting the decrease amplitude with the control of highest bidding price. This is a new attempt in the application of Monte Carlo method. The proposed model is feasible and effective, which can provide the basis for bidding decision - making.