中韩自由贸易区预期产业效应的实证分析——以中国钢铁业为例

Empirical Analysis on the Expected Effects on Industries of the China-Korea FTA

中韩自由贸易区(FTA)在给中国优势产业带来发展机遇的同时,也会给劣势产业带来冲击。以中国钢铁产业为例,借鉴KIEP(2005)的敏感产品选择方法,确定出中韩FTA成立后中国钢铁产业的敏感品目,从微观角度定量分析中韩FTA的成立对中国钢铁产业的预期影响,结果表明:如果给予过渡安排,对整个钢铁行业的冲击可能会小得多,如果不给予过渡安排会对国内高附加值产品,对成长中的板材生产商的发展造成较大威胁。

China-Korea FTA brings not only the opportunities for the comparative advantageous industries, but also the impacts to the comparative disadvantageous industries. Taking the China＇s steel industry as example, we can use the KIEP＇s sensitive product selection method, ensure the sensitive products of China＇s steel ＆ iron industry and explore the expected effects on the industrial of China from the micro aspects. The results show that if we take the transition arrangement, it will bring smaller stock to the whole steel ＆ iron industry. If not, then it will make the bigger threaten to the home high additional products and the growing board prductors.