旧城更新系统动力学建模研究

A system dynamics model of urban renewal

以旧城区经济及社会与环境发展为研究对象,运用系统动力学方法,对旧城区保护与资源利用因素进行分析,建立旧城更新系统动力学模型.以广东省潮州市为例,分析经济、环境与产业发展等子系统的反馈回路及其相互影响,对旧城区保护与发展中存在的旅游业发展与环境改善、空心城区与产业协调发展等问题进行系统仿真,并提出可依托旧城区丰富的历史文化资源,综合发展旧城区多种产业,并协调产业发展与环境改善,提倡"源头防治"的城市环境改善方式.

Urban renewal plays an important role in the urbanization process in China. A system dynamics model was proposad for urban renewal. The relationships among the different factors of the three subsystems were analysed to determine the cause-effect relations. The statistic data of Chaozhou City, Guangdong Province were used for verif- ying the proposed model. The main suggestions include the integrated development of multiple industries based on rich historical and cultural resources in old city, balanced economic development with environmental improvement and ＂source control＂ strategy to the environmental protection.