我国居民消费与收入关系的实证分析

CHINA' S CONSUMPTION AND INCOME RELATIONSHIP EMPIRICAL STUDY

文章首先建立模型,然后利用现代计量经济学中的动态分布回归与误差修正模型,基于1996-2007年的年度数据,对我国消费与收入的关系进行实证分析,结果发现,长期来看人均收入每增加1个百分点,消费将增加0.8991个百分点,短期来看人均收入每增加1个百分点,消费将同增加0.2886个百分点,这一数值与长期关系的数值相比较而言显然较小,究其原因有预算约束,收入偏低,未来收支不确定,消费观念保守,消费环境较差,收入分配不公以及社会保障制度不健全等,因此,为了提高居民消费水平,应采取措施加以解决。

This article first model, and then in modem econometrics dynamic distribution return and error correction model, Based on 1996-2007 year annual data, China＇s consumption and income for the relationship between empirical research, finally discovered that In the long run per capita income increased by 1 percentage point, consumption will increase by 0.8991 percentage poin4 per capita income in the short term for each additional 1 percentage point, with the increase in consumption will be 0.2886 of a percentage point, investigates its reason to have the budget constraints, low income, the revenue and expenditure in the future uncertain, conservative concept of consumption, less environmental spending, unfair income distribution and social security systems and so on, in order to raise the level of consumption should be taken measures to solve them.