环境风险评价中的不确定性问题

Research of the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment.

介绍了环境风险评价中的不确定性问题的分类及其影响因素，论述了定量分析不确定性问题的４种方法，即传递函数法、数值模拟法、置信区间法和二间矩法。最后提出减少不确定性问题的途径，即多目标规划法、非参数回归法、回归分析法和专家意见法。

狪n this paper, the classification and impact factors of the uncertainty in the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) are introduced. Four methods for quantitative analysis of uncertainty, i.e. transfer function method, numerical value simulation method, confidence interval method and second order matrix method, are expounded. At last , the approaches for lessening uncertainty, i.e. multiple objective programming, nonparametric approach, regression analysis and expert opinion approach are put forward.