摘要
美国金融危机使全球经济呈现严重的下滑趋势,高度国际化的航运市场也因此受到沉重打击,航运市场运价走势成为业界普遍关心的问题。基于航运经济理论,通过航运市场需求与供给的计量经济模型的建立与求解,揭示国际贸易、航运供需之间的数量关系,进而对未来航运市场运价进行短期预测。结果表明,2009年航运市场运价将进一步下跌,运力过剩的局面短期内很难扭转。相关企业应采取相应对策抓住机遇,渡过难关。
The U.S. financial crisis makes the global economic show serious sliding trend. Highly globalized shipping market is attacked heavily accordingly. Question is widely eoneemed that how long will the financial crisis affect the shipping industry last. Based on the theory of maritime economies, the paper revealed the relation in quantity among international trade, supply and demand of shipping and then predicted short run freight of future shipping market by establishing and solving econometrics model. The results show that freight of shipping market in 2009 will fall further, so the situation of the surplus of transport ca- pacity is hard to turn around in a short term. Related enterprises should formulate the corresponding strategy to seize the opportunity to survive the crisis.
出处
《大连海事大学学报（社会科学版）》
2009年第3期15-18,共4页
Journal of Dalian Maritime University(Social Science Edition)
基金
辽宁省哲学社会科学规划基金项目(L08BGJ004)
关键词
航运市场
运价
计量经济模型
金融危机
shipping market
freight
econometrics model
financial crisis
