基于物质流分析的可持续发展方法探讨--以珠江三角洲为例

An Assessment Method of Sustainable Development Based on Material Flow Analysis:A Case Study of Pearl River Delta

文章以珠江三角洲为例,选取区域物质总需求、区域过程总排放、区域总排放等指标,对珠江三角洲社会经济系统的物质流进行核算,结果表明:(1)珠江三角洲区域物质总需求、区域总排放年均递减率在7%以上,资源使用密度、单位GDP物质排放年均分别减少10.3%、11.4%。说明珠江三角洲产业结构开始升级,环境朝着利好方向发展。(2)隐藏流在各类相关指标中占有比例较高,占区域总排放的比例年均高达98%。说明推行减量化生产,提高物质利用率,进一步推动循环经济发展已迫在眉睫。(3)物质排放强度地域差异明显,惠州、肇庆、中山、江门历年均低于珠江三角洲平均水平,深圳、东莞远高于平均水平;IPAT分析显示,A呈上升趋势,T值呈逐年下降的趋势。总体来看,珠江三角洲发展循环经济具有极大的潜力,也具有极强的现实意义。

Taking Pearl River Delta （PRD） as an example, a material flow analysis and accounting of environment-economic system with the index such as regional total material required （RTMR）, regional process output （RPO） and total regional output （TRO） was studied. Results showed that RTMR and TRO have a decrease more than 7% each year, average reduction of the use density of resource and material output per GDP are 10.3% and 11.4% respectively, which indicated that the industrial structure is upgrading, and environment of PRD trends to be better. Regional hidden flow has a high proportion in each related index, especially in RPO about 98% each year, which indicate that the dematerialization of industry, elevation of material use-efficiency and application of circular economy are needed in PRD. Regional material emission intensity has a geographic difference obviously, the cities of Huizhou, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan and Jiangmen are lower than average level of PRD while Shenzhen and Dongguan are far above the level. In the analysis of IPAT, GDP/total population which stand for the level of wealth have increased, while the TRO/GDP which stand for the level of technology has a trend to reduce yearly. The development of circular economy in PRD has a great potential and extremely practical significance.