恶性肿瘤16922例生存率分析

Population based cancer survival: an analysis of 16 922 cases

目的对启东１９８２～１９９１年以人群为基础的１５个部位的１６９２２例恶性肿瘤患者进行生存率分析，为全人群恶性肿瘤的生存率评价提供依据。方法据ＫａｐｌａｎＭｅｉｅｒ法，采用ＥＧＲＥＴ软件计算观察生存率（ＯＳ）；并用观察生存率与启东寿命表中期望生存率之比计算相对生存率（ＲＳ）。结果５种主要恶性肿瘤肝癌、胃癌、肺癌、食道癌及直肠癌的５年ＯＳ分别为１．８％、１１．６％、３．０％、３．３％及１９．９％，５年ＲＳ分别为１．９％、１４．０％、３．６％、４．２％、２３．７％。肝癌、胃癌、肺癌、食道癌、直肠癌的５年ＲＳ在男性分别为１．７％、１４．８％、３．４％、４．２％、２６．０％，在女性分别为２．７％、１２．７％、４．１％、４．０％、２２．０％。女性乳腺癌、宫颈癌的５年ＲＳ分别为５４．６％、３３．０％。结论人群各部位癌症的生存率均较低，其中以肝癌为最低，乳腺癌预后相对较好。肺癌、食道癌及胰腺癌的生存率与发达国家的结果大致相当，而乳腺癌、宫颈癌。

Objective In the period of 1982 1991, 16 922 patients with cancers from 15 sites of Qidong population based cancer registry were analysed for evaluation of cancer survival as well as different cancer control measures. Methods Observed survival rate(OS) was computed by the Kaplan Meier method using EGRET statistical software package. Relative survival (RS) which is the ratio of the OS to the expected rate was calculated by using Qidong life table with respect to sex, age and calendar period of observation. Results The five year OS for the 5 leading sites of cancers, liver, stomach, lung,oesophagus, and rectum were 1.8%, 11.6%,3.0%, 3.3%, a nd 19.9%, respectively. The five year RS for the 5 sites were 1.9%,14.0%, 3.6%, 4.2%, and 23.7%, respectively, in which, 1.7%, 14.8%, 3.4%, 4.2%, and 26.0% for males, and 2.7%, 12.7%, 4.1%, 4 .0%, and 22.0% for females, respectively. Female patients with breast cancer and cervix cancer had 5 year RS of 54.6% and 33.0%. Conclusion Cancer survival rates for all sites are poor, in which that of the liver is the lowest, while that of the breast, the highest. The survivals of cancers for all sites, especially for breast, cervix, and leukaemia are seen to be lower than those of European countries except for oesophagus, pancreas and lung cancer which do not achieve improved survival both in developing and developed countries. There will be a long way to improve the total cancer survival, as well as the cancer treatment in the developing countries.