人民币汇率变动与通货膨胀动态走势

Anti-inflation with RMB Appreciation: A Practical Dilemma

汇率变动对通货膨胀的动态走势是否具有驱动效应,对应着治理通货膨胀的不同政策选择。通过分析1998～2008年期间中国通货膨胀的动态传导机制和驱动因素,表明人民币加速升值并不是平抑这段时期国内通胀的有效策略。本文的实证研究结果暗示,在短期内,人民币汇率的持续大幅波动会影响市场预期,造成国内通货膨胀(或通货紧缩)进一步加大。从长期看,如果人民币继续大幅快速升值,贸易萎缩和资本流出的通缩效应将占主导地位,从而会增加中国经济硬着陆的风险。在全球新型金融危机的背景下,需要在维持汇率稳定的基础上适度增加人民币汇率变化的不可预测性,合理引导市场预期,遵循内外兼顾、动态协调的原则来调整汇率政策。

It is important for China to consider whether it is appropriate to curb inflation with RMB appreciation. This paper investigates the dynamic transmission mechanism of China＇ s inflation and the significant driving forces of inflation during 1998-2008. The empirical results suggest that to accelerate RMB appreciation cannot contain domestic inflation. Over the short-run, however, fast appreciation deteriorates excess liquidity and push up the market expectations on future inflation, which eventually leads to higher inflation. Over the long-run, RMB appreciation can induce ＂hard landing＂ risk to China through the reduced trade and capital drain. This paper proposes that China should increase the unpredictability of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, in conjunction with tight monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy. In order to control current inflation, more weights should he put on the proper management of market expectations and the mobility of China economic system.