摘要
为了评价木薯燃料乙醇产业的发展对中国农村地区薯农种植行为的影响,利用局部调整-自适应期望综合模型分析了中国木薯播种面积的长期、短期供给价格弹性。研究结果表明,中国木薯播种面积的短期、长期供给价格弹性均比较小,在这样的背景下发展木薯燃料乙醇并不会促进薯农增加播种面积,政府期望利用发展木薯燃料乙醇促进中国木薯产业升级的愿望将会落空。考虑到中国木薯燃料乙醇技术路线的生命周期化石能消耗、温室气体排放和传统的汽油技术路线相比并不具备优势,中国发展木薯燃料乙醇产业的必要性令人怀疑。
A partial adjustment-adaptive expectation model was developed to analyze Chinese farmers＇ cultivation behavior relative to the cassava price. The short and long term supply elasticities of cassva price to crop area were analyzed using the model. The results show that both short and long term cassava price supply elasticities are small, thus, development of cassava ethanol production will not encourage farmers to increase crop area and will not encourage upgrade of the cassava industry. Since there is little advantage in the well-to-wheel fossil energy efficiency and the greenhouse gas emission of cassava ethanol relative to gasoline, there is little reason for China to promote cassava fuel ethanol.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期913-916,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
北京市科委软科学博士论文研究资助项目(zz0501)
关键词
燃料乙醇
木薯
价格弹性
局部调整-自适应期望模型
fuel ethanol
cassava
price elasticity
partial adjustment-adaptive expectation model
