黄鼠鼠疫流行范围和强度与鼠蚤关系的研究

STUDIES ON RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EPIDEMIC RANGE OF PLAGUE, STRENGTH,DENSITIES OF CITELLUS DAURICUS AND BODY FLEAS

为研究鼠疫流行范围和强度与鼠蚤关系,利用回归分析,(1)根据1954～1986年松辽平原达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫监测资料得到模型:(鼠疫流行面积)=-120.5435+145.2389(最大直径),P=0.0002,(鼠疫流行最大直径)=3.4739+0.1478(黄鼠密度)-0.4678(体蚤指数),P=0.0516;(2)根据1951～1995年黄鼠密度监测资料得到模型:动物鼠疫流行强度=0.0579+0.0298鼠密度,P=0.0002,人间鼠疫流行强度=-0.0151+0.0626鼠密度,P=0.0001;(3)根据1957～1995年鼠密度和蚤指数监测资料,利用逐步回归,得到模型:动物鼠疫流行强度=-0.1167+0.0902体蚤指数,P=0.0181,人间鼠疫流行强度=-0.0267+0.0180体蚤指数,P=0.0782。结论:利用最大直径可预测鼠疫流行面积。

In order to study the relationships among the epidemic range of plague, strength, density of Citellus dauricus and it' s body flea index, the regression models were obtained respectively using the regression analysis method,(l)(epidemic area of the plague) = - 120.5435 + 145.2389 (epidemic maximum diameter of the plague), P =0.0002, and (epidemic maximum diameter of the plague) =3.4739 + 0.1478 (density of C. dauricus) -0.4678 (body flea index) , P =0.0516, according to the collected data of 1954 - 1986 in the natural foci of plague in Songhuajiang - Liaoning Plain; (2) (epidemic strength of animal plague) = 0. 0579 + 0. 0298 (density of C . dauricus) , P - 0. 0002, (epidemic strength of human plague) = -0.0151 + 0.0626(density of C. dauricus) , P = 0.0001, using the collected data of 1951 ~ 1995; (3)step-wise regression models were(epidemic strength of animal plague) = - 0.1167 + 0.0902(body flea index) , P = 0.0181, and (epidemic strength of human plague) = - 0.0267 + 0.0180(body flea index) , P = 0.0782,according to the collected data of density of C. dauricus and body fleas in 1957 - 1995 . Conclusions: epidemic area of the animal plague was forecasted by epidemic maximum diameter oi them; and epidemic maximum diameter and strength of them were forecasted by density of C.dauricus and it's body fleas.