世界原油供应和炼油工业中长期发展预测

The global crude oil supply and the refining industry:a mid-to-long-term forecast

金融危机影响当前世界石油需求,但不会改变未来石油需求增长的趋势。未来世界石油供应结构和质量将会发生变化,具体表现在:常规原油在液体原料供应总量中的比例将下降;不同地区原油的API度和硫含量变化和差别较大。这意味着未来炼厂不仅要提高原油加工量以满足需求的增长,还要应对原油质量的变化。与此同时,世界石油产品需求结构也在发生变化,柴油需求的增长速度高于汽油。这意味着需要改变炼厂的装置结构,使炼厂在增加原油蒸馏能力的同时,提高增产中质馏分产品的转化能力(尤其是加氢裂化能力)。我国炼油工业的发展,应该在掌握世界原油资源和供需情况的基础上,用好国内外两种资源。

Although the financial crisis is currently affecting global oil demand, it will not halt the future trend of rising demand. Future changes to the structure and quality of global oil demand will manifest in the following areas: conventional crude oil will make up a declining proportion of the total supply of liquid raw material, and there will be wider variations in the API gravity and sulfur content of oil from different regions. This means that, in addition to increasing processing capacity to keep up with rising demand, refineries will also have to cope with changes in the quality of crude oil. Meanwhile, patterns of global demand for oil products are transforming: demand for diesel oil is increasing at a faster pace than demand for gasoline. This means refineries will need to restructure their units in order to improve the transforming capacity (especially the capacity of hydrocracking) of mid distillate products in added production while improving the distillation capacity of crude oil. Based on an understanding of global crude oil resources and the supply-demand situation, China’s refining industry should move ahead by fully utilizing both domestic and international resources.