2009年全球汽油市场分析

Analysis:the global gasoline market in 2009

因经济恶化,2008年全球汽油需求出现负增长。2008年全球汽油供应为2196万桶/日,需求为2207万桶/日,缺口由上年的34万桶/日缩小至10万桶/日。北美、中东、拉美和非洲存在汽油缺口,欧洲和欧亚地区供应过剩。2008年美国汽油需求由上年的929万桶/日降至897万桶/日,净进口量也由上年的100万桶/日以上下降至90.3万桶/日。预计2009年美国汽油消费将微升0.7%,至903万桶/日,但汽油市场依旧疲软。美国是欧洲汽油的传统出口市场,受前者市场低迷影响,欧洲汽油将不得不寻求其他出口市场。预计2009年欧洲汽油将过剩117万桶/日。2009年亚太地区炼厂新增一次炼油加工能力将达201万桶/日,这些新增炼油能力将对炼油毛利构成压力,并不得不寻找新的出口市场。中东地区成品油需求的快速增长成为汽油消费的新增长点。预计2009年全球汽油供应量将持平或略低于去年的水平,而需求将持续疲软,全年NYMEX RBOB与WTI价差将在8美元/桶左右的较低水平运行。全球汽油贸易格局将不再是简单的单方向路径。

Due to the worsening economic situation, global demand for gasoline experienced negative growth in 2008. The global gasoline supply in 2008 was 21.96 million barrels per day (bpd); demand was 22.07 million bpd. The shortfall has been reduced from 340,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd. There were gasoline shortfalls in North America, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, while Europe and Eurasia had a substantial surplus. In 2008, U.S. demand for gasoline dropped from 9.29 million bpd the previous year to 8.97 million bpd; net imports also fell, from 1 million bpd the previous year to 903,000 bpd. Gasoline consumption is expected to increase by 0.7% to 9.03 million bpd in 2009; currently, however, the gasoline market remains sluggish. The United States is a traditional market for European gasoline exports, and this downturn is forcing Europe to seek alternative markets. Europe is expected to have an gasoline surplus of 1.17 million bpd in 2009. In 2009, new distillation capacity in the Asia–Pacific region will hit 2.01 million bpd, putting pressure on the gross refining profits and necessitating a search for new export markets. In the Middle East, a new source of growth in gasoline consumption is the rapid growth of refined products. In 2009, the global gasoline supply is expected to remain steady or dip slightly below the previous year, and demand will remain weak. The price spread between NYMEX RBOB and WTI will be about US $8/ton. The global gasoline trade will no longer be confined to a single path.