奥肯定律在中国的适用性分析

An Analysis of the Okun′s Law′s Applicability in China

作为宏观经济学中著名的经验定律,奥肯定律阐明了经济增长率与失业率之间的负相关关系。该定律认为与正常的(或潜在的或趋势的)增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升。从我国1978-2007年GDP增长率与城镇职工登记失业率的统计,发现奥肯定律在我国存在的失灵现象,现行经济发展非良性,统计标准偏差,隐形失业大量存在是奥肯定律失效的主要原因。

Okun＇s Law which is considered as the most notable empirical law in the macroeconomics reveals the inverse correlationship between economic growth rate and unemployment rate. Compared with the normal （potential or tendential ） growth rate, the faster economic growth is, the lower unemployment rate will be. And vice versa, the low rate of economic increment has close relationship with the increase of unemployment rate. This paper finds out the GDP growth rate and registration unemployment rate in China from 1978 to 2007. There is a malfunction in the application of Okun＇ s Law in China for such reasons as unhealthy economic development, the deviation in statistical standard and the mass existence of stealth unemployment.