摘要
禽蛋产品是关系国计民生的重要战略性商品,主要从禽蛋生产角度对我国禽蛋物流需求规模进行预测,分析物流需求量的变化趋势,从而有效进行禽蛋产品物流组织工作。根据我国不同地区禽蛋产品生产与消费的比较,可以看出我国很多地区禽蛋生产经营规模狭小,物流组织模式比较适合发展"海岛模式"。但从长远发展来看,禽蛋产业必须要走地区专业化、生产规模化的道路,即未来禽蛋物流组织模式可以借鉴"大陆模式"。这对于做好禽蛋物流组织工作,适应禽蛋购销市场化的新形势,完善禽蛋产品产业链,保证国家禽蛋安全,具有十分重要的意义。
The paper tries to forecast the egg products logistics demand scale in Chna from the angle of egg production and to analyze the change trend of logistics demand in order to organize egg products logistics effectively. According to the comparison between egg production and consumption in different districts of China, it shows that the egg production scale is small in many districts, therefore, the logistics organization mode is fit for "island-mode', however, in a long perspective, the egg production must take the road of district specialization and large-scale production, namely adopting egg logistics organization mode as "mainland-mode".
出处
《物流技术》
2009年第6期53-56,共4页
Logistics Technology
关键词
神经网络
非线性组合预测
物流组织模式
海岛模式
大陆模式
neural network
non-linear combination forecast
logistics organization mode
island-mode
mainland-mode