中国计划生育政策50年评估及未来方向

Assessment of Chinese Birth Control Policies and Their Future Orientations

中国计划生育政策自20世纪50年代末酝酿,60年代出台以来,可区分为广义计划生育政策和独生子女政策两类。独生子女政策是特定时代的产物,其人口控制效果与广义计划生育政策相比并无明显优势。新历史时期,该政策模式无论从政策理念、控制效果,还是具体执行方式都面临转型的需求。人口控制是人类可持续发展的必要手段,要进一步发挥人口政策的调节作用,除胎数放开外,还应当考虑对现行政策的方向进行调整,在尊重生育意愿的基础上,以鼓励型控制替代限制型控制,以宏观政策配合替代单一人口政策调节。从更宽泛的意义来说,这一转型也有利于消解不同社会政策间的概念分歧,促成彼此一致性的达成。

Since the 1960s,Chinese birth control policies may be categorized into generalized birth-control policy and only-child policy. Based on the assessment of the population control effect of these two types of policies,the article argues that only-child policy should be treated as the product of the special historical time,for its population control effect is no better than that of generalized birth-control policy. In the new era,only-child policy needs to transform in many aspects,such as the concept of public policy,the effect of population control and the execution of fundamental department. To adjust population effectively and fairly in the long term,future policy's orientation should be reconsidered not only in the number of off-springs but also in the policy ideas emphasized in this paper.