政治风险对中国企业走出去的影响——基于面板数据模型的实证研究

The Effect of Political Risk on China Firms' Going Abroad——An Empirical Study Based on A Panel Data Model

在理论上,东道国政治风险对FDI流入本地具有负面效应,但实证研究的结果是两可的。2000年后中国非金融类对外直接投资(OFDI)发展迅速,与此同时,政治风险事件的发生也呈明显上升之势。文章对中国企业2003—2006年在73个国家的非金融类对外直接投资进行了考察,研究结果表明:总体而言,东道国政治风险对中国OFDI无显著影响。该结论对于更好地认识中国企业走出去具有重要的理论和实践意义。

Theoretically, political risk （PR） in the host countries can exert negative effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment, but the empirical results differ from each other. After 2000, China＇s nonflnancial outflow of foreign direct invest ment （OFDI） boomed when the PR events tend to rise accordingly. This paper uses the data of China＇s OFDI in 73 countries to make a panel data model and concludes that PR of the host economy has no obvious influence on the inflow of China＇s OFDI. The conclusions of the paper have important theoretic and practical implication to China＇s going abroad.