基于AHP的水环境安全风险评估模型设计及实现

Design and implementation of water environment safety risk assessment model based on AHP

三峡库区天然水文情势与水流形态的变化,易引发各类突发水污染事件。合理评估三峡库区污染事件风险,可以减轻或避免突发事件造成的危害。针对这一问题,研究并提出一种基于层次分析法的水环境安全风险评估预警模型。在设计的水污染风险评估指标体系基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各项风险指标的相对权重,根据层次排序与预警等级划分规则,建立水污染风险评估模型。该模型应用于三峡库区水环境安全预警系统,对历史污染事件进行风险综合评估,评估结果表明模型可行并具有较好的实用价值。

The change of natural water regime and the fluent shape in Three Gorges Reservoir is likely to initiates some kinds of the instant water pollution event. Through reasonable assessment of the risk of pollution events after impoundment, the harm caused by unexpected incidents can be avoided or reduced. In view of the problem, a method based on analytic hierarchy process of water environmental safety risk assessment model for the early warning is researched in this paper. On the basis of the design of the water pollution risk assessment index system, the method of analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is used to determine the risk indicators of the relative weight of each risk indicator, the level sorting and the early warning classification rules are given, the water pollution risk assessment model is established. And they are used in the early warning system of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region water environment safety. Based on the data obtained from the history risk overall assessment, the appraisal result indicates that the model is feasible and has good value of application.