中国出口贸易中隐含能变化的影响因素——基于结构分解分析的研究

Influential Factors Analysis of Embodied Energy Change in Exports of China:Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

利用结构分解分析(SDA)方法,可以将中国1992—1997年以及1997—2002年间出口贸易中的隐含能变化分解为规模效应、技术效应和结构效应。技术效应又进一步分解为能源利用技术效应和中间投入技术效应。结果显示:出口规模的扩大是导致隐含能出口上升的主要原因,而技术效应应是减少隐含能出口的关键因素,但并非绝对,1992—1997年,技术效应增加了隐含能的出口,而在1997—2002年间,技术效应对减少隐含能出口有很大作用。在技术效应中,中间投入技术效应的影响在各部门间的变化不大,能源利用技术效应在部门间有较大的差异,对于各部门技术效应的影响方向具有主导作用,特别是在1997—2002年其作用更加明显。而出口结构效应虽然对隐含能出口变化的影响不大,但是也经历了从增加隐含能出口到降低隐含能出口的变化。

Based on structural decomposition analysis,this paper decomposes the embodied energy change in exports of China from 1992 to 1997 and from 1997 to 2002. The embodied energy change in exports is decomposed into three parts： scale effect, technological effect and structure effect. The technological effect is further decomposed into energy use technological effect and intermediate input technological effect. The results indicate that the expand of export scale is the main reason for embodied energy increase in exports, and the technological effect is the key factor for embodied energy decrease, but it is not always the case. The technological effect, which increased the exported embodied energy during 1992 to 1997, greatly contributed to the decrease of exported embodied energy during 1997 to 2002. By decomposing the technological effect, it is found that the intermediate input technological effect doesnt change a lot between sectors, but the energy use technological effect is quiet different between sectors, and it is dominant in technological effect, especially during 1997 to 2002. Though structure effect doesnt play a key role in embodied energy change in exports, it has experienced form increasing the embodied energy export to decreasing the embodied energy export.