面向节能发电调度的母线负荷预测平台

The platform of bus load forecasting for energy-conservation based generation dispatching

根据节能发电调度对母线负荷预测提出的新要求,提出了建设母线负荷预测平台的总体方案。采用多层体系的B/S结构和J2EE技术,应用高性能网络数据库作为后台数据支持,建立了以母线负荷分析和预测为核心,集数据采集与管理、预测后评估分析和预测结果的上报考核管理一体化的信息管理和预测系统。提出了母线负荷建模方法、母线负荷预测模型方法库、自适应训练机制、预测过程控制等关键技术,为进行详尽的数据挖掘分析、高质量的需求预测和一体化的母线负荷管理提供灵活的网络化操作平台。该平台适应电网调度管理精益化的新要求,可为提高母线负荷预测精度、提升负荷预测工作的管理水平、保障电力系统安全经济运行提供有力的技术支持。

Based on the analysis of the new requirements involved in Bus load forecasting under Energy-Conservation Based Generation Dispatching, the platform of bus load forecasting was proposed and designed. B/S structure mode and J2EE technology architecture as well as high-performance network databaso were apphed in this platform. Focusing on bus load analysis and forecasting, some practical functions including module of data acquisition, data management, post-forecasting evaluation and report-checking management were integrated in this platform. Proposing key technologies such as bus load modeling, the pool of forecasting models, adaptive training mechanism and forecasting process control, the system was applicable for the new requirements. This is a flexible networked software platform for intensive data analysis, accurate demand forecast and integrative forecasting management. It can serve as an effective supporting tool for improving bus load forecast accuracy, ensuring secure and economical operation of power system.