灰色系统理论与方法在城市环境噪声污染分析中的应用

The Gray System Theory and Method Applied in Environment Noise Pollution Analysis

应用灰色系统理论和方法，通过关联分析，可确定影响城市区域环境噪声变化的优势因素是人口因素和机动车辆因素，即主要噪声源为生活源和交通源．利用ＧＭ（１，１）模型，可对哈尔滨市未来五年的环境噪声变化进行预测．残差分析表明，短期预测精度很高，残差低于±０．２％．

Considering the urban regional environment noise as a gray system, using the gray system theory and method, it is identified by the correlation analysis that the superior factors affecting the urban regional environment noise are from the population and traffic and with the Gray Model(1,1), the environment noise variations in future five years are pre- dicted with an error less than 0.2 percent for the short - term prediction.