降雨滑坡预警的概率分析方法

PROBABILITY ANLYSIS BASED METHOD FOR RAINFALL-INDUCED LANDSLIDE WARNING

滑坡启动的降雨临界值是滑坡预警的关键,由于研究区资料数据有限,关键值难以确定,降雨滑坡预警效果受影响。所以应该对预警结果进行概率分析。本文利用作者在已开发的降雨滑坡预警系统,提出采用降雨滑坡预警概率分析方法进行预警。通过对滑坡与雨量相关性、降雨滑坡启动值等对滑坡预警的时间概率、空间概率及预警概率进行分析,计算危险区内已发生滑坡频率和降雨滑坡发生频率,得到降雨滑坡预警概率使得预警系统更加可靠。并以沐川县为例对模型进行了算例检验,为更科学的对降雨滑坡进行预警提供方法借鉴。

The rainfall threshold is the key to the warning of rainfall - induced landslides. Because of the available data in the study area is limited, the threshold value is hard to ascertained, which have influence over the effect of landslide warning. The probability analysis of predictive result is proposed on condition of scant prerequisite as a resuit. This article analyzes the relevance of precipitation and threshold value of landslides occurrence and accesses rainfall - induced landslides probability by calculating frequencies of landslide occurrence and rainfall - induced landslides. The method of probability analysis is brought forth in the warning of rainfall - induced landslides, which is based on the developed landslide warning system. The credibility of the method is shown by applying it to the modeling of Muchuan county. The application of probability analysis method was capable of effectually improving landslide warning system.