季度GDP核算的国际比较

An International Comparison for the Accounting Methods of Quarterly GDP

随着经济的快速发展,各国都面临着怎样能够准确及时对其经济发展状况和趋势进行分析、评价、预测与决策,而季度GDP被公认为是快速反映经济发展状况的重要指标。这样,季度GDP数据的精确性和及时性就显得非常关键。越来越多的学者开始研究适合本国国情的季度GDP核算方法,进行季度GDP核算与应用研究,为及时准确地制定适合本国国情的经济政策提供有效服务。虽然各国的核算方法千差万别,但目前比较突出的主要是东盟、英国、日本、德国、加拿大、法国等所使用的方法。介绍具有代表性的东盟、英国和日本的季度GDP核算方法,并对其优劣性进行了简要分析,对于中国开展季度GDP核算将起到一定的借鉴作用。

With the rapid economic development, countries are faced with the question of how to make the trend analysis, evaluation, forecasting and decision-making for its economic development accurately and timely. Fortunately, the quarter GDP is recognized as key indicator that is reflected the rapid economic development. In this way, it is very critical that quarter GDP data should be accuracy and timeliness. As a result, a growing number of scholars started to look for the quarterly GDP accounting method according to their own national conditions, to make the quarterly GDP accounting and applied researeh, for timely and aecurate manner to develop its own national conditions for economic policy to provide effective services. While the accounting methods differ from one country to another, but the ASEAN, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, Canada, France, are more prominent. In this paper, a representative of ASEAN, the United Kingdom and Japan＇s quarterly GDP accounting methods are made and their advantages and disadvantages of a brief analysis are given. It is useful to carry out this quarter＇s GDP accounting for our country in the draw.