中国房价与地价的关系研究

A Research on the Relationship Between Housing Price and Land Price in China

对中国房地产市场的现状进行分析,认为在土地价格、房屋销售价格的背后存在着一个广义的"潜在房价",从长期角度利用永久瞬时模型和信息共享模型检验了"潜在房价"存在性与构成以及地价和房价对这个潜在价格的贡献度,从短期角度采用Granger因果关系检验对二者关系进行分析。结果表明:长期而言,房屋销售市场是决定"潜在房价"的主导力量,对于土地市场起着价格引领的作用;短期而言,房价和地价存在显著的双向因果关系。

In this paper, the writer analyzes the present situation of the real estate market in China and maintains that there exists a ＂Potential Housing Price＂ behind the housing price and the land price. We implement methods such as Gonzalo- Granger permanent- instantaneous model and Hasbrouck information share model to make an empirical analysis of the Chinese housing price index, factorizing the long memory components to get each price＇s ＂contribution＂ and testing the existence and components; We also adopt Granger causality test, from the perspective of short term, to find out the relationship among the housing price and the land price. The results show that for a long term, the housing price is slightly higher than land price and becomes the main factor in dominating the potential housing price, and for a short term, land price and housing price will affect each other alternatively.