基于多峰高斯模型的石油储量与产量预测

Oil reserves and production prediction based on multi-cyclic Gauss model

通过分析鄂尔多斯盆地的勘探开发历程,结合鄂尔多斯盆地储量与产量增长具有多峰态的特点,采用多峰高斯模型拟合该盆地石油储量和产量的历史曲线,并预测2006—2030年盆地储量与产量的增长趋势。预测结果表明:鄂尔多斯盆地在2006—2030年石油探明地质储量年均增长量为1.3×108t,累积探明石油地质储量为33×108t;石油产量在前期增长迅速,后期增长平缓,2025年以后有所下降,2030年仍能保持在0.3×108t以上;在相当长的时间内,该盆地的石油勘探开发将具有广阔的前景。

By analyzing exploration and development history of Ordos Basin and its multi-cyclic characteristics of oil reserves and production growth, history curves of oil reserves and production for the basin were fit by multi-cyclic Gauss models. And the tendency of oil reserves and production growth from the year 2006 to the year 2030 were predicted. The results show that the annual average proven reserves of Ordos Basin will be 1.3 × 10^8 t from the year 2006 to the year 2030, and the accumulated proven reserves will be 33 × 10^8t by the end of the year 2030. The oil production will rise rapidly in the early stage and will rise steadily in the later stage, then will decrease slowly after the year 2025, and will be more than 0.3 × 10^8t at the end of the year 2030. The foreground of oil exploration and development of the basin will be vast for quite a long time.